My Prediction of the General Election 2015 Results – to be quickly forgotten if wrong!!!
As everyone has been saying this is the closest of close general elections for years with no party able to win an overall majority. The two main parties have been tied on 33% – 34% since before the campaign kicked off 6 weeks ago. However, over the last few days polls have been showing a Conservative lead of about 1%. It has to be said that the margin of error is about 3%. That means that if the polls are true either the Tories are 4% ahead of labour or Labour will win by 2%.
Any which way, that does not add up to an overall majority for either party. The UKIP challenge seems to be stuck on 14%. They are likely to find the same problem as the Liberal Democrats under the current first past the post system. Their level of general support will not convert into an appropriate number of seats. The 14% support will give them no more than 5 seats, if they are lucky. Once they have the seats, however, local conditions can play a large part. For instance the world would have to come to an end for the Lib Dems to lose The Orkney and Shetland constituency. The problem for UKIP is to get into that position in the first place.
That puts paid to predictions that the SNP will win all the Scottish seats. There are 59 parliamentary seats in Scotland and I would expect the SNP to win about 50. A heavy blow for Labour to take. Unofficially, Labour is saying that they will hold about 10 seats in Scotland. For a party that says that it wants an anti Tory government it is ironic that the more popular the SNP becomes the more the chances that labour will never win a majority. The other side to that is that the Tories become more likely to win the popular vote and the highest number of seats.
My prediction is that not party will gain an overall majority, no surprise there then. Labour to take 260 -270 seats, The Tories 270 -280. The interesting thing is that to build a coalition seems more difficult for the Tories rather than Labour. A party need 326 seats to be able to form a majority government. The SNP will work with Labour but not the Tories. The Liberal Democrats will work with anyone that will give them ministers, very liberal with their favours. UKIP would support a Tory minority government. Would Cameron want to give them a sniff of power? That would be risky for the future of the Tory party. We could well be looking at a Labour led minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats with day to day support from the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and the Greens on a vote by vote basis. The other main option would be for Cameron to run a minority Tory government. That would be entertaining, very few of its policies would get through, let alone a budget. Should he chicken out of that Miliband could run a minority government, and probably much more successfully than Cameron as there are more natural partners that would support individual policies.
However, what ever happens no one is going to want to precipitate a new General Election any time soon.
Predictions in full
Tory Party 280
Lib Dems 18