Gavin Williamson is Missing
Where is he? Has anyone seen Gavin Williamson? If you have forgotten (as he seems to have) he is the minister for education and he has been having a hard time recently. First “A refusal to make contingency plans was the “most unforgivable” element of the UK government’s handling of education during the pandemic, according to a damning report detailing widespread failures. In the findings, based on interviews with senior officials, the Institute for Government, a think-tank, on Wednesday laid out what happened behind the scenes in a year of policy twists and turns as schools struggled to keep up with conflicting advice from ministers.The account paints an unflattering picture of both the Department for Education and Downing Street, suggesting both were opposed to local authorities and fixated on centralisation.” (Source The Financial Times) Then there is the scandal of the confusion when this year’s GCSE and A-level exams were dropped in January after the government had insisted for months they would go ahead. Then there is the huge, and growing, discrepancy between the results obtained by the independent schools, and the results of the schools the rest us use. (Hardly surprising that he doesn’t care about this when Good Ol’ Gav had to be shamed into even feeding poor kids.) You would have thought that e would come out hitting, defending his department but he has been strangely quiet, hidden from the press and public. Can’t say that I blame him, perhaps he has a sense of shame after all. Gavin Williamson, the Sly Schemer For someone who seems so affable and reliable Gavin (or Good Ol’ Gav, as no one calls him) has attracted some oddly negative comments from those on his own side, let alone The Opposition, parents, or anyone who knows him in fact. Take Alan Duncan’s wonderfully indelicate diaries (Amazon link). Duncan has a few choice words to say about Gavin, the diaries are contemporanious so they show how prescient Duncan is. In November 2017 Gavin was promoted to Secretary of State for Defence, and Duncan wrote; “In quite the most extraordinary cabinet appointment I can think of, Gavin Williamson has been promoted Defence Secretary. It is absolutely absurd. He seems to have pushed himself forward for this undeserved promotion. It is a brazenly self-serving manoeuvre that will further embed the view of him as a sly schemer, which he undoubtedly is,” “He is also ludicrously unqualified for the heavyweight job of defence secretary, having never run anything. His experience amounts to having been a fireplace salesman, then bag-carrier for two PMs, then chief whip for a year. What on earth was the PM thinking?” Gavin Williamson, a venomous, self-seeking little shit Duncan reports that Gavin Williamson is suspected of leaking against Cabinet colleagues and so is “universally detested” by those on his own benches. He accuses Williamson of scheming against former Defence Secretary Amber Rudd. He also accused him of working against the then Prime MInister. His comment is that Gavin Williamson is a “venomous, self-seeking little shit”. Don’t you just hate it when people sit on the fence. Gavin Williamson, Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? There is, it would seem, a good chance that Williamson will be thrown to the wolves at the next reshuffle, as reported in The Guardian. The one question I have is whether that will ever happen. Remember, he used to be chief whip and knows where the bodies are buried. He also, apparently, a history of coniving against his rivals and friends (although there are few of them). He has a list of all the scandals, the rumours, the schemes and the lies. Can you see him going quietly? Neither can I. If he does go what price will he demand, and get from Johnson?
Tory Leadership Race
Theresa Goes, eventually. May is leaving us with a whimper, and so is Theresa. Yesterday she told the grieving/jubilant nation (depends on whether you are Theresa or Boris) that she had failed. Give her her due, it has only taken 3 rejections by the House of Commons to realise what we all knew 2 years ago. Her “Brexit means Brexit” strategy should have been called “Brexit means exit, stage left”. Now the Tory Leadership race begins for real. Theresay May has done what had seemed impossible, she made Gordon Brown look like an effective PM. The people that I feel real sorry for are the political hacks who will have to write new pieces rather than rehashing the same “TM to be kicked out this week” stories that have dominated the Sunday papers week after week for months. Prepare for weeks of articles peppered with leaks about the Tory Leadership hopefulls from un-named sources. The knives will be out, and how. Politics as a blood sport. The runners and Riders Reading the Tory blogs and you seem to have a field for the Tory Leadership that would be almost as big as that for the Grand National, with the prospect of even m ore fallers! The listy so far; Boris Johnson (Well known prat and serial lier) Esther McVey (Ex- Children’s BBC presenter and briefly “in charge” of Works and pensions) Jeremey Hunt (Re-named, appropriately by James Naughty. Also read about his disgraceful Hilsborough comments here!) Rory Stewart (Who? I mean, really, WHO?) Matt Hancock (Secretary of State for Health, the one that promoted a private company’s health app, while being the Health Minister. He really is dedicated to the NHS, honest) Who else is saddling up to Join the Tory Leadership race? Dominic Raab (Secretary of State for Exiting the EU for about 3 months before it all became too much for the poor dear. Quit and run away rather than fight for what you believe in. At least May tried.) David Lidington (De-facto May’s number 2. Most interesting part of his political career? That he thought that it was OK to claim expenses for, amongst other things, dry cleaning, toothpaste, shower gel, body spray and vitamens. At least we paid to made him healthy and smell nice. I believe that his apology was something like “I accept that many people would see them as over-generous.” Such a fulsome apology) Michael Gove (Yes, the Govemeister is going to try again! Let’s hope that he has been forgiven for stabbing Boris in the back last time, and that he can do it again!) Penny Mordaunt (Always in the top 10 of MPs, at least for expenses in 2015. Beaten by 9 MPs who claimed for travel, like Penny, but then most of them were travelling to and from Scotland, she was travelling to and from Portsmouth North.) Andrea Leadsom (Another making another run at the top job. You will remember that last time she said that she would be a better PM because, unlike May, she had children. Oh yes, a fully paid up member of the supportive sister-hood. On the other hand she was an investment banker in a previous life, Say no more! There are others, lots of them. But I am losing the will to live thinking about these shady chancers. One Name is missing from the Tory Leadership Listings What about Amber Rudd? I hear you ask. Well, she resigned from the cabinet this week and a couple of days later May steps down. Historically, those that cause the Tory PM of the day to fall on their sword are thanked by their colleauges but not supported in the resulting ballot. Did she really cause May to go or not? I can not see how, I think that it had much more to do with May’s misjudgement over her “new, improved” offer. On the other hand she might be scared that people will remember her past record. Such as; Her part in the unlawful detention and deportation of asylum seekers. Overseeing a rise in violent crime (slash police numbers and crime goes up, who’d have thought?) Lieing to the House of Comons about knowing about targets for deprting members of the Windrush Generation. One Dark Horse for the hustings? Sir Graham Brady has resigned as chairman of the 1922 comittee. It would seem that he is readying a bid for the Tory Leadership. As he has been the chairman since 2010 he will know where all the skeletons are buried. This could get interesting! Tory Leadership Odds I think that these odds came from Bet365. I may be a cynic but perhaps their clientelle should do some research before they put any money on Farage and Corbyn………. Boris Johnson 6/4Dominic Raab 6/1David Lidington 9/1Jeremy Hunt 12/1 Andrea Leadsom 12/1 Michael Gove 14/1Penny Mordaunt 20/1Rory Stewart 22/1Sajid Javid 22/1Nigel Farage 25/1 Jeremy Corbyn 33/1Amber Rudd 80/1Jacob Rees- Mogg 80/1
Theresa May – What is she good for?
Theresa May’s Record as Home Secretary Before Theresa May became Home Secretary in 2010 there had been five others in six years. That she lasted 6 years goes to show that she is a survivor. What has sunk others was a stepping stone for her to the top job. The media was broadly supportive, and the general public seemed to think that she did well, or well enough. Police numbers and Theresa May When Home Secretary she cut police numbers by 20,000. She was vilified by the Police Federation. She said that they were “crying wolf” over the cuts. However, while she cut the police numbers crime fell. Obviously, TM was right. Except, the crime reduction was in line with a drop in recorded crime internationally. Also, the spread of CCTV and more secure vehicles would have helped. The recent meteoric rise in knife crime has not persuaded her that she was wrong to push the cuts through. Only within the last couple of weeks she said There was “no direct correlation between certain crimes and police numbers”, and. “What matters is how we ensure that police are responding to these criminal acts when they take place, that people are brought to justice.” This obviously true (as someone said cutting the number of police on the street would have no effect on financial fraud), but it does have a direct impact on street crime. The present Home Secretary disagreed with her, he said that the police must be given the resources to tackle violence. It is not just the bobbies on the beat that have been sacked. Out of about 7,000 armed officers in 2010 almost 1,500 had gone by 2016. As most of the remaining armed officers are in metropolitan areas there were real fears that those of us outside of London would have no protection in case of terrorism. She promised to employ another 1,500 in 2015, so that is alright then. It would have been so much better if they had not been sacked in the first place! Talking about terrorism, what was the point of the Tpims (Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures)? No body uses them. That should make us all feel safe in our beds. Also, she had a huge row with Michael Gove when he was Education Secretary. He wanted the “drain the swamp” of Islamic extremists, her approach was more conciliatory (which I agreed with). Later she reneged on that position saying that there had been “too much tolerance of extremism”. So, she was saying that she was wrong and Gove was right!! Immigration and Theresa May Theresa May’s approach to immigration and refugees was to talk tough and when the going got tough to hide. One of her Immigration Acts was supposed to “create a hostile environment” for illegal migrants. It included landlords checking on tenants’ status, among other things. Remember the Go Home vans touring “immigrant” areas? The whole expensive, repugnant exercise resulted in just 11 people leaving the country. As for dodging the brickbats. When the immigration figures came out and the government’s targets were missed, did she front up? Of course not, she sent poor James Brokenshire to face the press and Commons. When she failed to tackle rising immigration effectively it was not her fault, she blamed the rest of the government. When they wanted her to remove the overseas students from the target I (a classic Thatcher tactic to make employment figures look better) Theresa May refused! On the other hand she did keep deporting people who did not earn enough, which split up an estimated 33,000 families. She also refused to limit the time anyone was held in detention centres. Crime and May There was a time when Theresa May could be seen as a “liberal” remember her speech at the Conservative Party’s conference warning them about becoming the “nasty party”? That was obviously a blip. Referring to Ken Clarke when he was Justice Secretary she said “I lock them up, He lets them out.” She pushed through elected police and crime commissioners. That worked so well, catching the imagination of the whole nation. Can you remember who your commissioner is, and di you vote in the election? Oh yes, the last thing that she did as Home Secretary was to ensure that any inquiry into the Battle of Orgreave would not take place for years and years. Somebody has to protect Thatcher’s memory, too many skeletons in that cupboard, obviously. Conclusion But to answer my question in the title, what is she good for? Absolutely nothing (to quote Frankie)….. Next time I plan to talk about Theresa and the European debacle. As a taster here is CNN’s report of her record defeat on Brexit. Poor old Theresa things go from bad to worse…
Politics – General Election 2015 Tory Tax Promises
Tory Tax promises – Too Good to be true? You Bet! Dave Cameron has said that he would pass a law to say that it is illegal to raise Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT for the next 5 years. The Tory party would pass that law within the first 100 days of a Tory majority government. That sounds great, but. Last election he said that he had no plans to raise VAT, guess what he did as soon as his feet were under the desk? Raise VAT. But a law, that sounds like a real Tory promise. So, if he is not going to raise those taxes and manage to reduce the deficit how could he go about it? What about all the taxes he has not mentioned? These 3 taxes account for something like 65% of the Government’s income so not being able to raise them means one of 2 things. Either the taxes not mentioned, business taxes and rates for example, are in the firing line or Welfare spending is going to be decimated. To a large extent we know that The Tory Party has the Welfare budget in its sights. £12bn of undisclosed cuts has to mean more misery for the least well off. Without the prospect of tax rises those cuts can only be worse than feared. Remember that Danny Alexander said only yesterday that the Liberal Democrats stopped The Tory party from making swinging cuts to child benefit in the last parliament. (Alexander actually said “slash” which is an English slang term for urinating. Pissing on the Poor is what a lot of people think that The Tory party has already done.) Beyond the headline The Tory party has made an interesting statement. If we need a law to make them keep their promises then does that mean that all the other Tory pledges are not really pledges? How much of what they say can we trust? Another interesting, well to me anyway, facet is that for the first time The Tory party is limiting the scope of the Chancellor’s power to raise and vary taxes. They have never done that before, and with good reason. Imagine an economic downturn. What can the Chancellor do? Without repealing that no tax rise law, he would have one hand tied behind his back. It would have to be a crisis for them to repeal the law, so his options would be reduced to cutting local government funding or hitting the poorest, again. Then again, The Tory party would not baulk at that, so that’s OK then.
Politics – General Election 2015 – The Tory Strategy
What are the polls telling us about the Tory Campaign Strategy? The Tory party has always had a slick and efficient campaign team. Once in gear it sets off and usually steam rollers over everything in its path. At the start of the campaign the word was that the Tory party expected the machine to work again with them taking a lead in the last week or two. So far that has not happened. The last BBC Poll of Polls that I have seen still puts the Tory party on 34% and the Labour party on 33%. As there is a 3% margin of error that means they are still neck and neck. What is going on? The Tory campaign started with the slogan “ A brighter future a more secure future”. When launching their manifesto the Tory leader David Cameron used the word “secure” innumerable times. The thought was that by using the words “secure” and “security” that repetition would implant the thought that the Tory party is solid and dependable, trustworthy, whereas Labour isn’t. However, that strand of the campaign seems to have withered on the vine. Then there were the remarkably personal attacks on Miliband. Michael Fallon was widely condemned for his “backstabber” attack. On 9th April Sky News broke details of a Tory dossier urging everyone to attack Miliband. The trouble is, the attacks did not work. People saw the attacks and saw Miliband stand up to them. Miliband’s stock rose as a result. Another campaign strand fell by the way side. In 2010 the Tory strategy was to link leadership and the economy. It brought them success. This time round they have forfeited leadership. How can you talk about leadership if you are scared to turn up to the debates? Cameron did not want to give Miliband the opportunity to look like a PM in waiting. Denying him a stage on equal footing may have been legitimate, why make your opponent look good? The trouble is that Cameron just looked scared to debate Miliband. The next strategy is the “vote for my party to stop another party working with a third party after May 7” strategy. That is a hard strategy to get over to the public. As the third choice strategy it also has little time to build in the public mind. It also has a ring of negative campaigning about it which may turn people off. All they seem to have heard for most of this campaign is the Tory party being negative. Voters tend to like good reasons to vote for people, rather than negative reasons why not to vote for someone else. There have been some spectacular, one off own goals. Even Theresa May, would be next Tory leader, has been guilty. To say that a SNP backed Labour government would be “Worst crisis since the abdication” seems well over the top and was much derided. Over all, the Tory campaign has slid from one gaff to another, from one failed strategy to another. What must be worrying Labour is that they still can not get away from this substandard Tory party in the Polls.
Politics – The Tory Party at War
The Tory Party may not be at war but tensions are running high! The race to be Cameron’s successor seems to be ramping up inside the Tory Party. We all know that Boris (the public buffoon who is really calculating and determined) is in the race. So is The Chancellor George Osborne (formally Gideon Oliver Osborne – the Gideon did not have the common touch. Frankly George, it would take more than a name change). Now, Theresa May is also beginning to make waves, quite big ones actually. She has been told to get a grip of her aides who are beginning to resemble the packs of aides that surrounded Blair and Brown. Two of them refused to canvass during the campaign for Rochester and Strood. For that Nick Timothy and Stephen Parkinson were suspended from the list of approved Tory Party parliamentary candidates. They said that they could not campaign as it was against the rules for aides to undertake party political work. Both Grant Shapps, the Tory Party chairman and Cameron himself disagreed. May went to bat for her underlings, but to no avail. Rumour has it that some members of the Tory Parliamentary Party are accusing her of not being a team player. Not the sharpest knives in the drawer are they? She never has been. The question of Timothy and Parkinson rumbles on, they will be admitted back into the Tory Party fold if they agree to campaign, so far they have not done so. Obviously they still have her support. The Sunday Times (21/12/14) talked of May starting a war against other ministers when she announced that Universities would have to ensure that foreign students would have to leave the country once their studies have finished. That sort of thing always plays well with the rabid right of the Tory Party, or the nasty party as May called it some years ago. The problem about students over staying has been dealt with. The bogus colleges that was a one way ticket into this country have been closed. The bogus student problem is over. What May is talking about here are those students that been to real universities and colleges, the sort of people who would help this country by using their qualifications here, not abroad. Not surprisingly her plan will be opposed by The Treasury and The department for Business, Innovation and Skills. They believe that Britain could only benefit if highly skilled overseas graduates are allowed to enter the UK job market after completing their degrees. Addendum. An interesting comment from the Daily Mail Online about the war in the Tory Party. Number Ten is said to be fed up of criticism of what they see as incompetence in David Cameron’s political operation from May’s camp Chancellor George Osborne is said to have been concerned by a surge in support for Mrs May among party activists, among whom she is now the clear favourite to succeed Mr Cameron, though sources insisted he had played no role in the suspension of Mr Timothy and Mr Parkinson. One of the Home Secretary’s supporters was yesterday quoted as saying: ‘Osborne is obsessed with having spies everywhere so he can either succeed Cameron or be kingmaker. Theresa has every right to protect her own interests. ‘That is not disloyalty and she will not be intimidated by anyone in Downing Street.’ Tory Party backbencher Nadine Dorries said: ‘The man pulling the strings is Osborne, not Cameron. ‘Osborne is desperate to ensure he has enough Tory Party MPs in place to vote him on to the shortlist of two, which is put before members to choose the next leader, should there be a contest in 2015. Those two are likely to be Boris Johnson and Theresa May.’ She added: ‘If Nick and Stephen become MPs that is two more votes for Theresa and two fewer for George. Theresa has had a lot to put up with. The more popular she is among party members, the nastier it becomes in Westminster.’ Mrs May has repeatedly stressed her loyalty to Mr Cameron and personal relations between the two remain reasonable, though she has never been part of his inner circle. However, the Home Secretary, dubbed ‘Britain’s Angela Merkel’ by allies, is thought to regard Mr Johnson as a ‘faintly ridiculous’ figure and would run against him if the Tory Party loses in May and Mr Cameron is forced to quit. So she thinks that the Tory Party might lose in May?
Phil’s British Heart Foundation Donation – you know it makes sense
