National Health Service Funding – the £84 Billion Lie
The Tories are telling lies about the funding increase to the National Health Service. Philip Hammond is again playing fast and loose with the truth. Double counting, or quadruple counting in this case, is not normal practice for a government, or anyone else. The health budget for NHS England (other parts of the NHS are funded separately) is about £110 billion so an increase of £84 billion seems really impressive. But, the truth is much less impressive. Through inflation the NHS spending will rise to £135 billion by 2023/24, that is £20.5 billion and that was announced by the government before the budget. It is also where we start looking for this mistical £84 billion. Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics and Damned Tory Statistics. The origin of the £84 billion “increase” in NHS funding is convoluted to say the least. Each year the money spent on health goes up by an estimated inflation figure of between 3.1% and 3.6%. Add each year’s increase together, throw in the inflation increases for the Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales plus a £1.25 billion a year for National Health Service pension contributions and there you have it £84 billiuon. Or, as the less than straightforward Chancellor said on 1st October; “We’ve announced an unprecedented £84 billion real-terms funding boost for the NHS, what the NHS says it needs”. Philip Hammond MP, Chancellor of the Exchequer Do you remember another time Philip Hammond made a rather outlandish claim? Not about National Health Service Funding this time this is the time he claimed that unemployed people are a figment of our imagination! Read about it here! Would a privatised National Health Service work? See this post for my view. Don’t just take my word for it read this from fullfact.org.
Has Police Funding Fallen since 2010/2011?
Police Funding has fallen since 2010/2011. It is heartening that Nigel Evans, the local MP, has just realised that the police need more funding. It is a shame that he has been voting for reductions since 2010, and yet does not accept that police funding has fallen. In fact, the funding from central government fell by 30% during the period 2010/2011to 2017/2018. By increasing funding from local sources (i.e. Cuncil Tax) the average overall fall in funding has been 19%. However, the central funding is going to increase this year, isn’t it? After all austerity is dead. (Isn’t it?) Well, There was an announcement that police funding was to increase by £460m in 2018/2019. (The whole police budget is about £12.3b so it is hardly an earth shattering increase in police funding). But even with this increase the central grant is going to be the same as 2017. As inflation is running at 2% that means a real terms cut. £280m is going to be raised by allowing the police to raise the amount they can raise through the council tax. £50m is being spent on antiterrorism and the other £130m has been set aside for special grants to meet unexpected costs for events such as terrorist incidents, and for improving the technology used by police forces. In summary, the Tories have cut the funding from central government by 30% in 8 years. Even when austerity is dead and police funding is going to increase it is not being increased from central government coffers. Most of the small increase will be from council taxes. And the rest is made up of money for counterterrorism. So, valuable money to fight terrorists but not for more bobbies on the beat. Nigel and his Tory mates are trying to distance themselves from the result of their own policies and beliefs. They are either in denial that they have reduced police funding, or they are just cynical and think that we are all fools. For the record, police funding increased by 31% between 2000/01 and 2010/2011….
Politics – General Election 2015 Tory Tax Promises
Tory Tax promises – Too Good to be true? You Bet! Dave Cameron has said that he would pass a law to say that it is illegal to raise Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT for the next 5 years. The Tory party would pass that law within the first 100 days of a Tory majority government. That sounds great, but. Last election he said that he had no plans to raise VAT, guess what he did as soon as his feet were under the desk? Raise VAT. But a law, that sounds like a real Tory promise. So, if he is not going to raise those taxes and manage to reduce the deficit how could he go about it? What about all the taxes he has not mentioned? These 3 taxes account for something like 65% of the Government’s income so not being able to raise them means one of 2 things. Either the taxes not mentioned, business taxes and rates for example, are in the firing line or Welfare spending is going to be decimated. To a large extent we know that The Tory Party has the Welfare budget in its sights. £12bn of undisclosed cuts has to mean more misery for the least well off. Without the prospect of tax rises those cuts can only be worse than feared. Remember that Danny Alexander said only yesterday that the Liberal Democrats stopped The Tory party from making swinging cuts to child benefit in the last parliament. (Alexander actually said “slash” which is an English slang term for urinating. Pissing on the Poor is what a lot of people think that The Tory party has already done.) Beyond the headline The Tory party has made an interesting statement. If we need a law to make them keep their promises then does that mean that all the other Tory pledges are not really pledges? How much of what they say can we trust? Another interesting, well to me anyway, facet is that for the first time The Tory party is limiting the scope of the Chancellor’s power to raise and vary taxes. They have never done that before, and with good reason. Imagine an economic downturn. What can the Chancellor do? Without repealing that no tax rise law, he would have one hand tied behind his back. It would have to be a crisis for them to repeal the law, so his options would be reduced to cutting local government funding or hitting the poorest, again. Then again, The Tory party would not baulk at that, so that’s OK then.
Politics – General Election 2015 – The Tory Strategy
What are the polls telling us about the Tory Campaign Strategy? The Tory party has always had a slick and efficient campaign team. Once in gear it sets off and usually steam rollers over everything in its path. At the start of the campaign the word was that the Tory party expected the machine to work again with them taking a lead in the last week or two. So far that has not happened. The last BBC Poll of Polls that I have seen still puts the Tory party on 34% and the Labour party on 33%. As there is a 3% margin of error that means they are still neck and neck. What is going on? The Tory campaign started with the slogan “ A brighter future a more secure future”. When launching their manifesto the Tory leader David Cameron used the word “secure” innumerable times. The thought was that by using the words “secure” and “security” that repetition would implant the thought that the Tory party is solid and dependable, trustworthy, whereas Labour isn’t. However, that strand of the campaign seems to have withered on the vine. Then there were the remarkably personal attacks on Miliband. Michael Fallon was widely condemned for his “backstabber” attack. On 9th April Sky News broke details of a Tory dossier urging everyone to attack Miliband. The trouble is, the attacks did not work. People saw the attacks and saw Miliband stand up to them. Miliband’s stock rose as a result. Another campaign strand fell by the way side. In 2010 the Tory strategy was to link leadership and the economy. It brought them success. This time round they have forfeited leadership. How can you talk about leadership if you are scared to turn up to the debates? Cameron did not want to give Miliband the opportunity to look like a PM in waiting. Denying him a stage on equal footing may have been legitimate, why make your opponent look good? The trouble is that Cameron just looked scared to debate Miliband. The next strategy is the “vote for my party to stop another party working with a third party after May 7” strategy. That is a hard strategy to get over to the public. As the third choice strategy it also has little time to build in the public mind. It also has a ring of negative campaigning about it which may turn people off. All they seem to have heard for most of this campaign is the Tory party being negative. Voters tend to like good reasons to vote for people, rather than negative reasons why not to vote for someone else. There have been some spectacular, one off own goals. Even Theresa May, would be next Tory leader, has been guilty. To say that a SNP backed Labour government would be “Worst crisis since the abdication” seems well over the top and was much derided. Over all, the Tory campaign has slid from one gaff to another, from one failed strategy to another. What must be worrying Labour is that they still can not get away from this substandard Tory party in the Polls.
Politics – General Election 2015 – Tory Bribe Extended
Tory “Granny Bonds” on Sale for Longer. Tory Chancellor George Osborne has extended the deadline for the pensioner band for another 3 months. That is, until after the election. The bonds, provided by National Savings and Investments, are backed by the government. They give up to 4% interest over 3 years which is far more than is currently available to savers. The BBC’s Joe Lynam said; “We knew these pensioner bonds would be popular but few expected them to be this popular. Their arrival three weeks ago has flushed out billions of pounds of cash owned by older people. They’ve found a safe new place to park their money, with incredibly generous rates of interest. The original ceiling of £10bn has been scrapped simply because the (Tory) chancellor and his deputy (Liberal Democrat) Danny Alexander didn’t want to risk the ire of such a key voting demographic who might have missed out on such a lucrative opportunity. The fact that the newly created window for investing in pensioner bonds closes almost as the general election polls do is a happy coincidence”. But what is the cost of this Tory policy? The government borrows money at 1.2 % it lends it out at 4%. That is not good economics. There has been another, unexpected, consequence. According to Which? “Our new study indicates that 63 savings accounts, Isas or bonds had their interest rate lowered in the seven days following the launch of the market-leading pensioner bonds by National Savings & Investments on 15 January”. In other words as the Tory policy is going to underwrite more than £10bn in savings there is no longer the need for financial institutions to battle for the savings market. They have slashed their rates for the rest of us. Critics will say that ordinary working-age taxpayers will be subsidising an often wealthy group of pensioners whose homes have multiplied in value and whose company pensions are far more generous than will be the case when younger generations Generation retire. The Institute for Economic Affairs, criticised the extension of the scheme, arguing that it was distorting the market. “This announcement well and truly proves that we are not all in it together,” said Director General of the Institute for Economic Affairs Mark Littlewood. “Borrowing more expensively than the government needs to is effectively a direct subsidy to wealthy pensioners from the working-age population.” Since when has that bothered a Tory Chancellor? Mr Littlewood went on to say “Pensioner bonds have never been anything other than a gimmick that will benefit pensioners at the expense of the taxpayer, and it beggars belief that the government is prolonging such a foolish policy.” The Tory Chancellor has said that the cost of extending the scheme would be in the region of “several hundred million of pounds”. Labour’s shadow Treasury minister Chris Leslie said pensioners had suffered under the coalition thanks to the rise in VAT and changes to age-related personal allowances. “Don’t be surprised if George Osborne, as we get closer to an election, tries to give away all sorts of things when, actually, he is trying to erase the memory of how much he has taken away from pensioners. And he has not said where he is going to get the money for this. What other public services are going to suffer as a result?”
Phil’s British Heart Foundation Donation – you know it makes sense
