Politics – General Election 2015 – A Three Party Coalition?
General Election 2015 Could It Really be A Three Party Coalition? The New Statesman was showing that given the polls at the end of February the two main parties would win 271 seats in the general election. Tories down by 36 seats Labour up by 13. They were also showing the SNP up by 50 to 56, the Liberal Democrats down to 25 seats from 57. I imagine that Nick Clegg is not reading the papers at the moment, or for the last year or two come to that. For a majority a party needs 326 seats. We are back into coalition territory, again, unless either Miliband or Cameron wants to try to run a minority government. Using the New Statesman’s projections what coalitions could evolve? The SNP has said that it would not enter into a coalition with Cameron. It would be suicidal for them to say anything else before the general election. Even after the general election they could not get into bed with the Tories. That leaves the way open to a SNP and Labour coalition. Except that they would still not have enough seats. They would only get to 327, 9 short. UKIP may have a higher percentage of the votes cast than the Liberal Democrats but the first past the post system guarantees that, unless something extreme happens, they will end up with just 4 or 5 seats. They could influence the outcome though as most of their votes would come from the Tories, those that do not come from thr BNP. that is. Where the Liberal Democrats are fighting the Tories in second place in 2010 the UKIP vote could sink the Tories. The way the vote splits on the left could determine whether Labour wins a few seats. Seats such as Plymouth Sutton, Bristol West (a constituency dear to me heart), and Hove could well be decided by the tactical voting of Green and Lib Dem supporters. There are some Tories that see the DUP in Northern Ireland being able to support them after the general election. The trouble is they may well get just the 8 seats. The Tories and Labour then need someone else to support them in a coalition. Who will be the first one to call Nick? That assumes that Nick will still be the leader of the Liberal Democrats, of course and hat is not guaranteed. Have the Liberal Democrats got the appetite to be in another coalition after the bruising experience of this one? God, I love politics, bring on the general election!
Politics – General Election 2015 UKIP Another Barking Candidate
UKIP Shoots Itself in the Foot Candidate Threatens to Shoot Tory Between The Eyes! UKIP are mad and bad. They are obviously bad given their odd policies and stance on immigration. They are obviously bad when their leader wants to leave the EU but is happy to pocket the EU cash. They are obviously bad when Diddy Neil Hamilton can not stand them. But mad? Oh yes. UKIP has announced that they will review their candidate selection procedures after their candidate Robert Blay, their candidate for North East Hampshire threatened to shoot his Tory opponent. He was caught on camera, at a public meeting at which Farage was speaking on Saturday. He said that if Ranil Jayawardena ever became PM Blay would shoot him “between the eyes”. Blay has been suspended by UKIP. The other reason that UKIP is both bad and mad is that it has taken them until the eve of the poll to realise what we all knew. Their candidate selection has allowed some very odd and deranged people to pass the vetting. One more reason, if one was needed why UKIP candidates are not fit to be elected to be dog wardens let alone parliament. Just for the record; The Mirror reported that he said: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes. If this lad turns up to be our prime minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.” Questioning Mr Jayawardena’s background, he said: “His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament. I’ve got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn’t got that.”
Politics – General Election 2015 – The Leaders’ Debates, Now We Know Why Cameron Was Scared
General Election 2015 – Cameron Was Right to be Scared David Cameron and Ed Milliband were interviewed this week on the same night by Paxman. On the night the studio audience said that Cameron had won. However, a strange thing has happened in the couple of days since. The viewing public has decided that Milliband won! For months the two main parties have been neck and neck, each on about 34%. The Sunday Times commissioned a poll by YouGov. It showed that the Labour party is now 4% ahead of Cameron’s Tories! There are more facets to the poll, and none of them make good reading for Cameron. While he is still ahead in the who would make the better Prime Minister stakes, Milliband is coming up. More worrying for Cameron is that when asked who is most in touch with real people, Cameron is not second behind Milliband. Cameron is third behind both Milliband and Farage! Milliband is seen as more trustworthy, genuine and in touch than Cameron. Of course, one poll does not mean that the general election 2015 is decided. At present it suggests that Labour would get 314 seats, the Tories 251, SNP 48, and the Lib Dems 16. Not an overall majority, but enough to start working with to construct a government. Anything could happen, including votes for the SNP handing the government to Cameron. Thinking about the polling. It seems that those questioned were people who actually watched the programmes. What you have to ask is what their voting patterns have been in the past. For example, if they were all Tory voters you would tend to think that they would favour Cameron and the reverse if they were all Labour voters. AS far as I can tell the sampling was balanced, more or less. What really matters is what the wider public get from the coverage. The first day after the interviews the coverage was all positive for Cameron, the following days less so. Certainly, the coverage today, Sunday, is quite dreadful for Cameron. Even the Tory supporters are getting in on the act. Writing for “The Conservative Woman” blog Beatrice Timpson is scathing about Cameron’s preformance. Read it here. Not a happy woman.
Politics – General Election 2015 – The Polls
The latest General Election polls I saw 2 polls in the papers yesterday. The Observer Con 34%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 14%, Greens 6%. YouGov Con 34%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 14%, Greens 5% So the pattern of The Conservatives and Labour being neck and neck remains. Since 2011 Labour has been ahead in the polls, but never very far ahead. What does it actually mean for the result of the general election? The traditional wisdom was that with both the main parties on 35% Labour would win a majority. The trouble is that the traditional wisdom does not hold. Labour’s vote in Scotland has collapsed, some heartland constituencies have seen a 25% swing to the SNP. The Tories are challenged by UKIP, which has picked up most of the votes that would have gone to the BNP. There are other factors to consider, even in 2012 The Telegraph was arguing that the Tories could not win a majority. One of the reason being that the Tories attract less than 20% of the ethnic minority vote. As they move out of Labour heartlands they take their votes with them diluting the traditional Tory vote. What else is going on as we move towards the general election 2015? Look at the Liberal Democrats. Their vote has collapsed so where will it go? In the past Liberal Democrats have looked to the left to ward off the Tories. Well, that did not work, all Clegg did was to rush into bed with Cameron. That does not persuade Lib Dem supporters to return to the fold, they fear that he might do it again. Those that voted Labour last time will stick with Labour. Those that voted Lib Dem last time have had their fingers burned, many will not do it again. They are also, as group, very likely to vote for soemone. They will vote Labour. Some Tories are saying that they need an 11% lead in the polls to win a majority. That is too high but they certainly need a bigger lead than Labour does to win a majority at the next general election. The truth is that unless there a significant shift we are heading for Labour being the biggest party at the next general election, but without a majority. So, a coalition. Maybe not. Cameron, wanting to hold on to power, would probably try to run a minority government if the Tories were the biggest party or could argue that they won the popula vote. Not an impossible scenario. A difficult trick as their only natural supporters would the rabid UKIP mob. Labour could try running a minority government without a formal coalition. They would look for support from the SNP and the Liberal Democrats on a case by case basis. Who said that the general election 2015 is boring?
Politics – general election 2015 – UKIP Backs the Tories
Politics – UKIP Backs the Tories on Deficit Plans Vote UKIP and get the Tories seems to be the message. Recent polls suggest that no one (of a sane mind) thinks that UKIP is anything more than a 12 month wonder. Just as the polls suggest that most people see UKIP as a temporary refuge for their votes (very few people see them as existing in 10 years time according to BBc polling) UKIP says that the Tories’ plans on deficit reduction after the next general election 2015 are something that they will back. The message is clear. Vote UKIP and if there is not an over all Tory majority they will support Cameron – assuming that he would survive the kicking that he would get if the Tories do not get if he did not get a majority. (That is a kicking from his “honorable friends”). The men in grey suits resemble Brutus. The arithmetic of a hung House of Commons is fascinating, at least to me, that the Tories could be supported by UKIP that has gained a lot of support from the failing (thank god) BNP is understandable. They are the same really, but where Nick Clegg would be selling his soul, this time, is more interesting. If he survives a vote meltdown will he support the toxic Tory Party or the lamentable Labour Party? My feeling is that he will do anything – remember his dumping of his pledge about student fees – to secure a tenuous grip on power. The only vaguely interesting question is which way he will jump. His party would want to go to the left but his preference may well be to hitch his wagon to any party that would allow him to have a nice job title “Deputy Prime Minister” or “The one that is ignored by the Prime Minister”. I started writing this concerned about the fecklessness of UKIP and ended up talking the fecklessness of Nick Clegg. Why are they the same?
Politics – UKIP From Soap Opera to Farce
UKIP Descends into Farce A week is a long time in politics,that is what Harold Wilson said, it is even longer for UKIP! Where to start? The communities spokesman for Ukip has defected to the conservative Party. Amjad Bashir, who represents Yorkshire and the Humber, met with David Cameron on Friday and has defected to The Conservatives. The Boy Cameron is delighted. Farage less so. UKIP responded by suspending Bashir as soon as the rumours started. They accuse home of financial and employment irregularities. That is a well worn track for UKIP. They did the same to Neil Hamilton. Needless to say, both men deny any wrongdoing. A spokeman for UKIP said that a file has been forwarded to the police. “The UK Independence Party has a zero-tolerance policy and takes the matters at hand extremely seriously. “The allegations against Mr Bashir are of a grave nature and we will be forwarding our evidence obtained so far to the police. Ukip will not tolerate anyone abusing their positions in the party, as we have a firm commitment to differing ourselves from the existing political classes. As a result, Mr Bashir’s involvement with the party was suspended today with immediate effect pending further investigations.” When speaking to a fringe meeting at the Conservative conference Boris Johnson said would-be defectors (Tory to UKIP) were the kind of people who might inflict “barely credible” injuries on themselves by “vacuum cleaner abuse”. I imagine Farage is harbouring similar thoughts about Bashir. What else s going on in that bizarre world that is UKIP? Lynton Yates was the PPC for UKIP in Charnwood. Yates defected from the Conservative party to UKIP after being a Conservative councilor for 12 years before defecting. I do not know how close he feels to his vacuum cleaner. Yates’ offense? he released a leaflet that saying that those on benefits “could really catch a bus” he added that that banning them from driving and owning a car would “likely remove six million cars from the road”. He also said that cyclists should “go back to the pavements”. (Great news for people in wheelchairs, visually impaired pedestrians, and parents with children and toddlers). Suspending him just because he said some strange and unhinged things seems a bit odd for UKIP, after all, most of them say strange and bizarre things none more so than UKIP party secretary Matthew Richardson. At the week end he was reported as saying that Ukip should represent ‘bigots’ and labelling the NHS a ‘waste of money’. Now, Richardson has not been suspended he has been defended by Farage. Strange party. Surely There is not More? But there is! Farage told the BBC’s Sunday Politics that, if Labour won the election on a non-referendum manifesto and Ukip failed to get any MPs into parliament, he would resign within 12 hours. “I would have failed,” he said. “I would have spent years trying to achieve this goal. I got into politics not because I wanted a career in politics, far from it, I did it because I genuinely don’t think that this European entanglement is right for our country.” Now, this is not the first time that Farage has threatened, or promised depending on your point of view, to resign as UKIP’s leader. However, he may be serious this time, although it hard to tell. In the wake of him saying that the possible replacements are beginning to show their heads above the parapets. One being touted is UKIP’s immigration spokesman, Steven Woolfe, has confirmed that he would be interested in leading the party. Well thought of Woolfe is articulate and his pronouncements on immigration are much less radical than Farage let alone that far, far right wing elements that Richardson said that they should represent. What on earth is he doing in UKIP you may well ask. Remember that he disagreed with Farage’s defense of the word “chinky” by Kerry Smith saying “We have no room for racists and homophobes in our party. “All working class people don’t say those sorts of words, that’s absolutely clear,” he said. “One thing to say with Nigel is he tries to see the good in people all the time. On this particular issue, I think we will have a difference of opinion of how we deal with it, Nigel even accepted that he [Smith] couldn’t stand as a candidate.” Who else wants the mantel? Paul Nuttall (great name) is UKIP deputy leader and he seems up for it. Nuttall, as we all know was NOT Bungle from Rainbow a childrens’ TV programme from the 70s………………..
Politics – The Leaders’ Debates (2)
An unlikely trio try to gang up on Cameron about the Leaders’ Debates As I posted a few days ago David Cameron has found a wheeze which he hopes will scupper the Leaders’ Debates. He does not want them, as no sitting PM would, as it gives the opposition party leaders to share a platform with him and to look prime ministerial (whatever that means). Some of us doubt if Milliband, Clegg or Farage could ever look like a prime minister in waiting. The other reason Cameron wants to avoid the Leaders’ Debates is that he knows that he will get a kicking from Farage tempting even more Tory voters to defect to UKIP. The reason Cameron has cited for his reluctance is that it would be unfair for some minor parties to be represented, he mentioned UKIP and the Liberal Democrats and not the Green Party. The Milliband, Clegg Farage axis has written to Cameron saying that they want to go ahead with the Leaders’ Debates even without him. They wrote identical letters that said; “I believe it would be a major setback to our democratic processes if these debates were not repeated in 2015 because of one politician’s unwillingness to participate.” They went on to say: “It would be unacceptable if the political self-interest of one party leader were to deny the public the opportunity to see their leaders debate in public. “Therefore, if you are unwilling to reconsider, the three party leaders who have committed to participate will ask the broadcasters to press ahead with the debates and provide an empty podium should you have a last-minute change of heart. “These debates are not the property of the politicians and I do not believe the public will accept lightly the prospect of any politician seeking to block them.” So what now? My feeling is that Cameron will appear, with or without the Greens. He is already being attacked as being scared of the Leaders’ Debates. He can not afford to be seen as running away from Farage. More interesting is what the broadcasters would do if he sticks his heals in and refuses to appear. Would they really go ahead with the Leaders’ Debates (lite)? They would be very reluctant but it would be fun to see the empty podium. How much damage would that do to Cameron’s image and would the broadcasters hand such a coup to the terrible trio? Does anyone remember when Roy Hattersley refused to appear on Have I got News For You and was replaced by a tub of lard? What could they substitute for The Boy David?
Politics – The Leaders’ Debates, Cameron says “No”
Cameron stands up for Democracy and The Greens, Really? David Cameron has said that he will not take part in the Leaders’ Debates unless The Greens are included. Making a stand for democracy. After all, The Greens out polled the Liberal Democrats at the last European elections. As he said; he could not see how “some minor parties like the Liberal Democrats and UKIP” could take part in the leaders’ debates, but not the Greens. A fair point, even if referring to his partners in crime as a minor party is pretty disrespectful. But is Cameron really sticking up for democracy? Do not believe it. He does not want to be on the same platform as the other leaders. To do so would enable them to demonstrate how statesmanlike they are. Cameron does not want to give them that potential hand up. He is also afraid that Farage will look to score points off him and will score some hits. Cameron knows that his party is the one that is most at risk from UKIP. His fear is that the debate could become a launch pad for UKIP at his expense. Expect to see more “he’s running scared tweets from Farage”. For once he is right. That a Prime Minister does not to take part in Leaders’ Debates is nothing new. They have always been resisted and Brown’s fate in the last lot will weigh heavily in the memory. There is, however, another part to this story. If they do happen (and they will) Cameron wants to share the pain with Clegg and Milliband. He knows that the Conservatory Party is safe from The Greens, but Labour and The Liberal Democrats are not. Cameron’s thinking is that no one who is thinking of voting Tory would ever swap from them to The Greens. The slogan vote blue and get green last time was a transparent attempt at a nod towards conservationists but the reality has been what we all knew that it would be. However Cameron would love to see voters moving from The Liberal Democrats and Labour to The Greens. There is no place for altruism in politics for Cameron (or any of the others to be fair). The debates will happen, but Cameron will be seen to be dragged screaming and crying into the studio.
Politics – Cameron has Blown the Election, on Day 1?
Cameron has scored an own goal It is always nice when people agree with you, even if it is the Torygraph, Here is what they say about Cameron and his election priorities. “Just what are the Conservatives’ election priorities? If you go to the Conservatives’ website, you’ll find this list on the homepage: • Income tax cut for 30m people • Benefits capped • An in/out EU referendum in 2017 • Getting immigration under control • The deficit eliminated • Strong and stable leadership Today, David Cameron is giving a speech outlining the central themes for the Conservative election campaign: • Deficit • Jobs • Taxes • Home ownership • Education • Retirement You will, I’m sure, quickly spot some rather significant differences. The biggest is that neither immigration nor an EU referendum are on the new Conservative list. Labour, meanwhile, is noting that the NHS isn’t there either.” It seems that Cameron and his aides have decide to play to their strengths, but to my (albeit biased eye) they are few. They lag behind UKIP on immigration, better to ignore it. They lag behind Labour on the NHS, much better to ignore it. The really interesting thing is Europe. He knows that he can not deliver on a re-negotiated treaty. There is no appetite for it anywhere else other than Cameron’s fevered imagination. The dilemma for Cameron is whether to fight UKIP on immigration, or not. The truth is that UKIP are peddling dangerous lies. The immigrants from Europe enjoy a much lower unemployment rate in the UK than indigenous UK citizens. In other words, they work harder, for less, that the average Brit. In politics the truth matters little. The Tories, and Cameron lose on this issue. Cameron can afford to lose on the NHS. After all the people who care about the NHS, above all, are likely to be Labour leaning voters. The problem is those pesky UKIP transfer voters. If they are going to vote Labour anyway then do not expend any energy on them. But, Tory to UKIP voters. Surely Cameron has to fight to save them? The problem is that anything that the Boy Cameron has to say about immigration will come across as UKIP-lite. Being out of power, and a party made up of one issue nutters, UKIP can make outrageous promises, and they do. – But they don’t talk about legalising guns too much – why should they? Cameron is on a hiding to nothing. He vowed to reduce immigration to “tens of thousands” it stands at more than 200,000. It is like the deficit. It is a stubborn problem that will not go away, no matter how he dresses it up. Cameron is just so lucky that he up against the UN-photogenic Milliband In any event some of his “loyal friends” are beginning (beginning?) to position themselves for the inevitable blood-letting should/when Cameron loses the election. (Perhaps we should think about what “loses” means, no majority, no majority and forced into another coalition?) The usual suspects are there Boris, Theresa, but how about Owen Paterson? (Who he? More to follow) That traditional friend of Cameron and the Tories the Sun is particularly hostile today: “If he won’t address the issue of immigration, you have to wonder if he really wants to win.” With friends like that………………
Politics – Has Cameron Blown the Election?
David Cameron Spells Out his Top 6 Priorities, and Upsets Everyone! The election campaign has begun, Cameron has spelt out his top 6 Priorities. Obviously Europe is there, he has to head off UKIP. Immigration is there, again to deal with UKIP and expose Labour. The last obvious subject has to be the NHS, he has to spike Labour’s guns. The strange thing is, none of these are in his top 6 priorities! What is going on? Surely Cameron is not running scared on immigration? Perhaps he is. There was an absolute promise to reduce immigration to “tens of thousands” in the life of this parliament. Failed, abysmally. How about Europe? There is Cameron’s pledge to renegotiate the treaty and have an in and out referendum in 2017. So, why, if he is on solid ground here is he risking the wrath of UKIP, the voters, and his right wingers? Perhaps he is facing up the reality that he can not deliver. Our 20 odd (the right wingers say very odd) European partners do not want to renegotiate anything. He can not deliver a referendum that he can win. Better to run away David, oh, you are. How about the NHS? Cameron uses the NHS, believes in the NHS. However, it is failing. After 5 years of Cameron’s tender loving care it is in intensive care. A&E is a nightmare. The problem is that people insist on getting ill. Worse still, they want to be made better. Just how unreasonable is that? Although he did not set it up, the first hospital to be privatised has just failed. The NHS is a poisoned pill for Cameron. So, what is on Cameron’s list? The deficit. (Cameron has seen it grow, not shrink) Jobs. (All those zero hour contracts) Taxes. (He has made good progress here, as long as you are one of his millionaire friends) Education. (We are still slipping down the league tables) Housing. (Does even Cameron believe that the bedroom tax was a good idea?) And retirement (Hang on a second, was it just today when it was announced that the much vaunted level state pension was exposed to be a sham? Yes it would). Sometimes you almost need to feel sorry for the Boy Cameron, almost.
Phil’s British Heart Foundation Donation – you know it makes sense
