Politics – General Election 2015 – A Three Party Coalition?
General Election 2015 Could It Really be A Three Party Coalition?
The New Statesman was showing that given the polls at the end of February the two main parties would win 271 seats in the general election. Tories down by 36 seats Labour up by 13.
They were also showing the SNP up by 50 to 56, the Liberal Democrats down to 25 seats from 57. I imagine that Nick Clegg is not reading the papers at the moment, or for the last year or two come to that.
For a majority a party needs 326 seats. We are back into coalition territory, again, unless either Miliband or Cameron wants to try to run a minority government. Using the New Statesman’s projections what coalitions could evolve?
The SNP has said that it would not enter into a coalition with Cameron. It would be suicidal for them to say anything else before the general election. Even after the general election they could not get into bed with the Tories. That leaves the way open to a SNP and Labour coalition. Except that they would still not have enough seats. They would only get to 327, 9 short.
UKIP may have a higher percentage of the votes cast than the Liberal Democrats but the first past the post system guarantees that, unless something extreme happens, they will end up with just 4 or 5 seats. They could influence the outcome though as most of their votes would come from the Tories, those that do not come from thr BNP. that is. Where the Liberal Democrats are fighting the Tories in second place in 2010 the UKIP vote could sink the Tories.
The way the vote splits on the left could determine whether Labour wins a few seats. Seats such as Plymouth Sutton, Bristol West (a constituency dear to me heart), and Hove could well be decided by the tactical voting of Green and Lib Dem supporters.
There are some Tories that see the DUP in Northern Ireland being able to support them after the general election. The trouble is they may well get just the 8 seats.
The Tories and Labour then need someone else to support them in a coalition. Who will be the first one to call Nick? That assumes that Nick will still be the leader of the Liberal Democrats, of course and hat is not guaranteed. Have the Liberal Democrats got the appetite to be in another coalition after the bruising experience of this one?
God, I love politics, bring on the general election!
Quit Smoking – I Make it to Day Three Smoke Free!
I Quit Smoking 3 Days Ago!
Three days on and how is it going?
Well, so far I have not killed anyone, although it has been close a couple of times. I went for a walk yesterday (day 2) and while in the pub after the walk with a beer in front of me I would have walked over burning coals to get to a tobacconists. (Un)-Fortunately, there was not one in the village so the soles of my feet are unscathed.
The most surprising thing as I quit smoking is that I do not miss the first cigarette of the day. When I decided to quit smoking I expected my first waking moments to be among the hardest but not at all. The moments that are the hardest are the unexpected ones. The ones while I am cooking and would normally nip out of the kitchen for a drag while something is simmering. The ones when I am listening to the radio and one programme ends and there is the chat until the next one starts. When I am listening to music. When reading and the urge comes unexpected and strident.
In other words, all the bloody time without any specific triggers. How can you prepare yourself for that? All you can do is face it head on, and fall back on all those coping strategies that you have devised. Trouble is, they do not really work. What works is not smoking, just that. Not smoking until the craving subsides. Not listening to the “one will not hurt” voice that nags away at you.
There is one thing that is helping me quit smoking more than I expected and that is the NHS quit smoking web site.
The way to quit smoking? Not smoking, that’s all. It is also the hardest thing that you will ever do, sometimes, and the easiest thing that you will ever do at other times. The trick is to reduce the instances of the first and increase the instances of the latter. The only way to do that is by keeping on quitting, every day.
Click image to discover some benefits of not smoking.
Quit Smoking – Day one
Today I Have Quit Smoking
The day arrived that I had decided to quit smoking. It is a Saturday. I had decided to start on a day that allowed me to break up the usual pattern of getting up, having a cigarette, breakfast, cigarette, showering, cigarette, driving to work with a cigarette, a quick cigarette before going into work. You get the idea.
A Saturday does not have the same pattern, apart from getting up and having a cigarette before doing anything else. In fact, today has been different in a number of ways. Apart from being the day to quit smoking I went for a balloon ride! That meant being up at 4.00 before driving for an hour and a quarter. Then there was the meeting all the others also going up in the balloon. Then the ascent and flight. All in all, a very different day that did not allow me to dwell on the quit smoking aspect of the day. Later I realised that I would have been the only smoker in the group of 16 flying today. Jane does not count, she has always been an “amateur” smoker, only one or two a day. She has never been a professional like me, 40 a day, smoking in all weathers.
I did have my electronic with me and I used it a couple of times. However no major cravings that I can remember. When we had returned to Clitheroe I went to buy the weekend food. Normally, the first thing that I would do is to check the queue for the tobacco desk as I went in. Today I looked, but not in a checking it out sort of way.
I am not saying that it has all been plain sailing. There have been moments. One of the worst was when I discovered that my electronic needed to recharge. It is charging as i write this, plugged in to the laptop. The trouble is that the charging thingy keeps showing green, but the damn thing still does not work! The shop where I bought it is shut, and will be for the next 3 days with it being a Bank Holiday, so the next few days could be awkward.
And I thought that it would be a doddle to quit smoking.
Quit Smoking? Me?
I am going to quit smoking, honest!
I have been smoking for 40 some years and smoke 40 a day. Not a reason to celebrate. Recently a friend was diagnosed with lung cancer and that has helped to focus my mind.
So, on Saturday (well, midnight Friday) I will quit smoking.
In the past I have tried, several times. However, this time it feels different. For one thing I am telling people. I have set up a savings spreadsheet to see how much I was wasting. I have an electronic cigarette to give me no excuse to buy another packet. (I don’t mind the nicotine so much as the gases and tar). I have nicotine suppressant drugs that should help wean me off all nicotine. It is a 12 week course of the drug so I hope to see my use of the e-cig decrease over time after I quit smoking.
What am I looking forward to when I quit smoking? Not coughing in the morning, my first thought when I get up not being where are my fags but what shall I have for breakfast, being able to fill my lungs, deeply, when I breath in. That kind of thing.
I will keep this blog up dated with my progress when I quit smoking.
Oh, yes, I think I will succeed, if nothing else I really, I mean really, do not want to have to write the “Quit Smoking? I Failed” blog………….
Politics – General Election 2015 UKIP Another Barking Candidate
UKIP Shoots Itself in the Foot Candidate Threatens to Shoot Tory Between The Eyes!
UKIP are mad and bad. They are obviously bad given their odd policies and stance on immigration. They are obviously bad when their leader wants to leave the EU but is happy to pocket the EU cash. They are obviously bad when Diddy Neil Hamilton can not stand them.
But mad? Oh yes. UKIP has announced that they will review their candidate selection procedures after their candidate Robert Blay, their candidate for North East Hampshire threatened to shoot his Tory opponent. He was caught on camera, at a public meeting at which Farage was speaking on Saturday. He said that if Ranil Jayawardena ever became PM Blay would shoot him “between the eyes”.
Blay has been suspended by UKIP. The other reason that UKIP is both bad and mad is that it has taken them until the eve of the poll to realise what we all knew. Their candidate selection has allowed some very odd and deranged people to pass the vetting.
One more reason, if one was needed why UKIP candidates are not fit to be elected to be dog wardens let alone parliament.
Just for the record;
The Mirror reported that he said: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes. If this lad turns up to be our prime minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.” Questioning Mr Jayawardena’s background, he said: “His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament. I’ve got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn’t got that.”
Politics – General Election 2015 Tory Tax Promises
Tory Tax promises – Too Good to be true? You Bet!
Dave Cameron has said that he would pass a law to say that it is illegal to raise Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT for the next 5 years. The Tory party would pass that law within the first 100 days of a Tory majority government. That sounds great, but. Last election he said that he had no plans to raise VAT, guess what he did as soon as his feet were under the desk? Raise VAT.
But a law, that sounds like a real Tory promise. So, if he is not going to raise those taxes and manage to reduce the deficit how could he go about it? What about all the taxes he has not mentioned?
These 3 taxes account for something like 65% of the Government’s income so not being able to raise them means one of 2 things. Either the taxes not mentioned, business taxes and rates for example, are in the firing line or Welfare spending is going to be decimated.
To a large extent we know that The Tory Party has the Welfare budget in its sights. £12bn of undisclosed cuts has to mean more misery for the least well off. Without the prospect of tax rises those cuts can only be worse than feared. Remember that Danny Alexander said only yesterday that the Liberal Democrats stopped The Tory party from making swinging cuts to child benefit in the last parliament. (Alexander actually said “slash” which is an English slang term for urinating. Pissing on the Poor is what a lot of people think that The Tory party has already done.)
Beyond the headline The Tory party has made an interesting statement. If we need a law to make them keep their promises then does that mean that all the other Tory pledges are not really pledges? How much of what they say can we trust?
Another interesting, well to me anyway, facet is that for the first time The Tory party is limiting the scope of the Chancellor’s power to raise and vary taxes. They have never done that before, and with good reason. Imagine an economic downturn. What can the Chancellor do? Without repealing that no tax rise law, he would have one hand tied behind his back. It would have to be a crisis for them to repeal the law, so his options would be reduced to cutting local government funding or hitting the poorest, again. Then again, The Tory party would not baulk at that, so that’s OK then.
Politics – General Election 2015 – The Tory Strategy
What are the polls telling us about the Tory Campaign Strategy?
The Tory party has always had a slick and efficient campaign team. Once in gear it sets off and usually steam rollers over everything in its path. At the start of the campaign the word was that the Tory party expected the machine to work again with them taking a lead in the last week or two. So far that has not happened. The last BBC Poll of Polls that I have seen still puts the Tory party on 34% and the Labour party on 33%. As there is a 3% margin of error that means they are still neck and neck. What is going on?
The Tory campaign started with the slogan “ A brighter future a more secure future”. When launching their manifesto the Tory leader David Cameron used the word “secure” innumerable times. The thought was that by using the words “secure” and “security” that repetition would implant the thought that the Tory party is solid and dependable, trustworthy, whereas Labour isn’t. However, that strand of the campaign seems to have withered on the vine.
Then there were the remarkably personal attacks on Miliband. Michael Fallon was widely condemned for his “backstabber” attack. On 9th April Sky News broke details of a Tory dossier urging everyone to attack Miliband. The trouble is, the attacks did not work. People saw the attacks and saw Miliband stand up to them. Miliband’s stock rose as a result. Another campaign strand fell by the way side.
In 2010 the Tory strategy was to link leadership and the economy. It brought them success. This time round they have forfeited leadership. How can you talk about leadership if you are scared to turn up to the debates? Cameron did not want to give Miliband the opportunity to look like a PM in waiting. Denying him a stage on equal footing may have been legitimate, why make your opponent look good? The trouble is that Cameron just looked scared to debate Miliband.
The next strategy is the “vote for my party to stop another party working with a third party after May 7” strategy. That is a hard strategy to get over to the public. As the third choice strategy it also has little time to build in the public mind. It also has a ring of negative campaigning about it which may turn people off. All they seem to have heard for most of this campaign is the Tory party being negative. Voters tend to like good reasons to vote for people, rather than negative reasons why not to vote for someone else.
There have been some spectacular, one off own goals. Even Theresa May, would be next Tory leader, has been guilty. To say that a SNP backed Labour government would be “Worst crisis since the abdication” seems well over the top and was much derided.
Over all, the Tory campaign has slid from one gaff to another, from one failed strategy to another. What must be worrying Labour is that they still can not get away from this substandard Tory party in the Polls.
Garden – The Tame Pheasant
A Garden visitor, he is becoming tamer.
This is Freddy. He visits the garden every day to feed. Originally, he was quite timid, now he is becoming bold. Today he was feeding while the lawn was being mowed. If there is no food out when he arrives in the afternoon he will wait while I walk up to him to bring him some!
He lives in the school playing fields over the fence from the garden coming over for tea just before 4.00 most days. If pheasants were not indigenous to this country we all marvel at them if we saw them abroad while on holiday. They are magnificent looking birds. It is a shame that Freddy, like most of his cousins, was raised to be shot.
Mind you, pheasants do taste good.
Me Walk? For East Lancashire Hospice, You Bet!
I am doing a sponsored walk for East Lancashire Hospice
Those of you that know me might be a bit surprised that I am going to do a sponsored walk. After all, I smoke too much and like a drink. Add to that I have an office job and do not do much exercise. However, The East Lancashire Hospice is a great cause.
True the walk on the 6th of June is only 10 miles AND it is billed as a pub walk….
The fact remains that the East Lancashire Hospice needs £3m a year, so if you can please donate. You can either visit my Just Giving page or click the link below or on the right of the screen.
Thank you,
Phil
Politics – General Election – Joey Essex
Joey Essex Shares his Political Insights
A reality TV star, Joey Essex, has interviewed Nick Clegg. These kind of one off interviews can sometimes pose difficulties for the party leaders. One of the main problems can be that the interviewer does not stick to the unofficial rules and can pose hard questions. They have no relationship with the interviewee and as they are unlikely to interview them again do not mind upsetting the subject of the interview.
What did we learn from Joey Essex about Nick Clegg? Joey praised Nick Clegg for his “honesty”. That was because it seems that Nick Clegg came clean and admitted that he was unlikely to win the General Election 2015. Such bravery from Nick Clegg.
Other revelations included that Nick Clegg’s party is actually called “Liberal Democrats”. What Joey Essex thought they were called, heaven knows. The revelation that amuses me most is that Joey Essex thought that Nick Clegg’s name is actually Clegg and not “Leg”.
Phil’s British Heart Foundation Donation – you know it makes sense
