Has Police Funding Fallen since 2010/2011?
Police Funding has fallen since 2010/2011. It is heartening that Nigel Evans, the local MP, has just realised that the police need more funding. It is a shame that he has been voting for reductions since 2010, and yet does not accept that police funding has fallen. In fact, the funding from central government fell by 30% during the period 2010/2011to 2017/2018. By increasing funding from local sources (i.e. Cuncil Tax) the average overall fall in funding has been 19%. However, the central funding is going to increase this year, isn’t it? After all austerity is dead. (Isn’t it?) Well, There was an announcement that police funding was to increase by £460m in 2018/2019. (The whole police budget is about £12.3b so it is hardly an earth shattering increase in police funding). But even with this increase the central grant is going to be the same as 2017. As inflation is running at 2% that means a real terms cut. £280m is going to be raised by allowing the police to raise the amount they can raise through the council tax. £50m is being spent on antiterrorism and the other £130m has been set aside for special grants to meet unexpected costs for events such as terrorist incidents, and for improving the technology used by police forces. In summary, the Tories have cut the funding from central government by 30% in 8 years. Even when austerity is dead and police funding is going to increase it is not being increased from central government coffers. Most of the small increase will be from council taxes. And the rest is made up of money for counterterrorism. So, valuable money to fight terrorists but not for more bobbies on the beat. Nigel and his Tory mates are trying to distance themselves from the result of their own policies and beliefs. They are either in denial that they have reduced police funding, or they are just cynical and think that we are all fools. For the record, police funding increased by 31% between 2000/01 and 2010/2011….
EU Referendum – Not Project Fear, Project Reality
The EU Referendum campaign was a nasty, divisive affair. Now comes Project Reality. They called it Project Fear, it is turning into Project reality. The Brexit campaigners won, but what has been the fallout? They said that everything that the Remain campaigners were saying were just the establishment lining up to scare the public. Really? What has happened in the 48 hours since the EU Referendum? So far; EDF are considering pulling out of Hinkley Point. Now, that may be a good or a bad thing depending on your point of view. The fact was a large infrastructure project is in doubt. Airbus, that employs 15,000 people in this country, say.as that it is actively reviewing its future investment. We all know what means. Ford, that employs 14,000 people in this country, says that it might be preparing to cut costs. We all know what means. The third runway for Heathrow would be killed by Boris. Large parts of HS2 could be stopped in its tracks. The pound plunged to 1980’s levels. Here comes more expensive petrol and imports. There is more fallout from the EU Refrendum Tata Steel, there are now doubts about the sell offs that were going to save at least some of our jobs. There has been a marked increase in far right racist attacks, graffiti, and the neo nazis are cock ahoop. That Cameron has signaled that he is going and we will not have a PM with any credibility for 3 months. Who is running the country? The Blairite jackals in the PLP are lining up to oust Corbyn. The French want to close the camps in Calais, agreen light for the people smugglers to up there despicable business. The FTSE 250 has had millions swept off its value. The FTSE 250 is a far better barometer of the UK based companies rather than the FTSE 100. 1.2 million Brits who live in the EU now are in fear of what might happen to them. Scotland will seek another independence referendum. The end of the UK. There are calls for the re-unification of all Ireland. The end of the UK. HSBC have announced that they could relocate 1,500 jobs from London to Paris. Farage has been forced to admit that the £350m a week windfall for the NHS was just a lie. Danny Hammon (?), Nigel Evans (my MP) have both admitted that leaving the EU does NOT necessarily mean that immigration will fall. The EU referendum has plunged this country in turmoil. Edmund Burke said, to paraphrase, that the views of constituents should be given due weight by their representatives. However, to give them directions that have to be obeyed strikes at the heart of our representative democracy. Referendums can destroy representative democracy. There is a place for them. However the EU Referendum asked a far too complicated question to be answered by a simple yes or no. God help us all.
Politics – General Election 2015 – A Three Party Coalition?
General Election 2015 Could It Really be A Three Party Coalition? The New Statesman was showing that given the polls at the end of February the two main parties would win 271 seats in the general election. Tories down by 36 seats Labour up by 13. They were also showing the SNP up by 50 to 56, the Liberal Democrats down to 25 seats from 57. I imagine that Nick Clegg is not reading the papers at the moment, or for the last year or two come to that. For a majority a party needs 326 seats. We are back into coalition territory, again, unless either Miliband or Cameron wants to try to run a minority government. Using the New Statesman’s projections what coalitions could evolve? The SNP has said that it would not enter into a coalition with Cameron. It would be suicidal for them to say anything else before the general election. Even after the general election they could not get into bed with the Tories. That leaves the way open to a SNP and Labour coalition. Except that they would still not have enough seats. They would only get to 327, 9 short. UKIP may have a higher percentage of the votes cast than the Liberal Democrats but the first past the post system guarantees that, unless something extreme happens, they will end up with just 4 or 5 seats. They could influence the outcome though as most of their votes would come from the Tories, those that do not come from thr BNP. that is. Where the Liberal Democrats are fighting the Tories in second place in 2010 the UKIP vote could sink the Tories. The way the vote splits on the left could determine whether Labour wins a few seats. Seats such as Plymouth Sutton, Bristol West (a constituency dear to me heart), and Hove could well be decided by the tactical voting of Green and Lib Dem supporters. There are some Tories that see the DUP in Northern Ireland being able to support them after the general election. The trouble is they may well get just the 8 seats. The Tories and Labour then need someone else to support them in a coalition. Who will be the first one to call Nick? That assumes that Nick will still be the leader of the Liberal Democrats, of course and hat is not guaranteed. Have the Liberal Democrats got the appetite to be in another coalition after the bruising experience of this one? God, I love politics, bring on the general election!
Politics – General Election 2015 UKIP Another Barking Candidate
UKIP Shoots Itself in the Foot Candidate Threatens to Shoot Tory Between The Eyes! UKIP are mad and bad. They are obviously bad given their odd policies and stance on immigration. They are obviously bad when their leader wants to leave the EU but is happy to pocket the EU cash. They are obviously bad when Diddy Neil Hamilton can not stand them. But mad? Oh yes. UKIP has announced that they will review their candidate selection procedures after their candidate Robert Blay, their candidate for North East Hampshire threatened to shoot his Tory opponent. He was caught on camera, at a public meeting at which Farage was speaking on Saturday. He said that if Ranil Jayawardena ever became PM Blay would shoot him “between the eyes”. Blay has been suspended by UKIP. The other reason that UKIP is both bad and mad is that it has taken them until the eve of the poll to realise what we all knew. Their candidate selection has allowed some very odd and deranged people to pass the vetting. One more reason, if one was needed why UKIP candidates are not fit to be elected to be dog wardens let alone parliament. Just for the record; The Mirror reported that he said: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes. If this lad turns up to be our prime minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.” Questioning Mr Jayawardena’s background, he said: “His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament. I’ve got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn’t got that.”
Politics – General Election 2015 Tory Tax Promises
Tory Tax promises – Too Good to be true? You Bet! Dave Cameron has said that he would pass a law to say that it is illegal to raise Income Tax, National Insurance, or VAT for the next 5 years. The Tory party would pass that law within the first 100 days of a Tory majority government. That sounds great, but. Last election he said that he had no plans to raise VAT, guess what he did as soon as his feet were under the desk? Raise VAT. But a law, that sounds like a real Tory promise. So, if he is not going to raise those taxes and manage to reduce the deficit how could he go about it? What about all the taxes he has not mentioned? These 3 taxes account for something like 65% of the Government’s income so not being able to raise them means one of 2 things. Either the taxes not mentioned, business taxes and rates for example, are in the firing line or Welfare spending is going to be decimated. To a large extent we know that The Tory Party has the Welfare budget in its sights. £12bn of undisclosed cuts has to mean more misery for the least well off. Without the prospect of tax rises those cuts can only be worse than feared. Remember that Danny Alexander said only yesterday that the Liberal Democrats stopped The Tory party from making swinging cuts to child benefit in the last parliament. (Alexander actually said “slash” which is an English slang term for urinating. Pissing on the Poor is what a lot of people think that The Tory party has already done.) Beyond the headline The Tory party has made an interesting statement. If we need a law to make them keep their promises then does that mean that all the other Tory pledges are not really pledges? How much of what they say can we trust? Another interesting, well to me anyway, facet is that for the first time The Tory party is limiting the scope of the Chancellor’s power to raise and vary taxes. They have never done that before, and with good reason. Imagine an economic downturn. What can the Chancellor do? Without repealing that no tax rise law, he would have one hand tied behind his back. It would have to be a crisis for them to repeal the law, so his options would be reduced to cutting local government funding or hitting the poorest, again. Then again, The Tory party would not baulk at that, so that’s OK then.
Politics – General Election 2015 – The Tory Strategy
What are the polls telling us about the Tory Campaign Strategy? The Tory party has always had a slick and efficient campaign team. Once in gear it sets off and usually steam rollers over everything in its path. At the start of the campaign the word was that the Tory party expected the machine to work again with them taking a lead in the last week or two. So far that has not happened. The last BBC Poll of Polls that I have seen still puts the Tory party on 34% and the Labour party on 33%. As there is a 3% margin of error that means they are still neck and neck. What is going on? The Tory campaign started with the slogan “ A brighter future a more secure future”. When launching their manifesto the Tory leader David Cameron used the word “secure” innumerable times. The thought was that by using the words “secure” and “security” that repetition would implant the thought that the Tory party is solid and dependable, trustworthy, whereas Labour isn’t. However, that strand of the campaign seems to have withered on the vine. Then there were the remarkably personal attacks on Miliband. Michael Fallon was widely condemned for his “backstabber” attack. On 9th April Sky News broke details of a Tory dossier urging everyone to attack Miliband. The trouble is, the attacks did not work. People saw the attacks and saw Miliband stand up to them. Miliband’s stock rose as a result. Another campaign strand fell by the way side. In 2010 the Tory strategy was to link leadership and the economy. It brought them success. This time round they have forfeited leadership. How can you talk about leadership if you are scared to turn up to the debates? Cameron did not want to give Miliband the opportunity to look like a PM in waiting. Denying him a stage on equal footing may have been legitimate, why make your opponent look good? The trouble is that Cameron just looked scared to debate Miliband. The next strategy is the “vote for my party to stop another party working with a third party after May 7” strategy. That is a hard strategy to get over to the public. As the third choice strategy it also has little time to build in the public mind. It also has a ring of negative campaigning about it which may turn people off. All they seem to have heard for most of this campaign is the Tory party being negative. Voters tend to like good reasons to vote for people, rather than negative reasons why not to vote for someone else. There have been some spectacular, one off own goals. Even Theresa May, would be next Tory leader, has been guilty. To say that a SNP backed Labour government would be “Worst crisis since the abdication” seems well over the top and was much derided. Over all, the Tory campaign has slid from one gaff to another, from one failed strategy to another. What must be worrying Labour is that they still can not get away from this substandard Tory party in the Polls.
Politics – General Election – Joey Essex
Joey Essex Shares his Political Insights A reality TV star, Joey Essex, has interviewed Nick Clegg. These kind of one off interviews can sometimes pose difficulties for the party leaders. One of the main problems can be that the interviewer does not stick to the unofficial rules and can pose hard questions. They have no relationship with the interviewee and as they are unlikely to interview them again do not mind upsetting the subject of the interview. What did we learn from Joey Essex about Nick Clegg? Joey praised Nick Clegg for his “honesty”. That was because it seems that Nick Clegg came clean and admitted that he was unlikely to win the General Election 2015. Such bravery from Nick Clegg. Other revelations included that Nick Clegg’s party is actually called “Liberal Democrats”. What Joey Essex thought they were called, heaven knows. The revelation that amuses me most is that Joey Essex thought that Nick Clegg’s name is actually Clegg and not “Leg”.
Politics – General Election 2015 – Tory Claim, Labour to Increase Taxes by £3,068.
What is the truth behind this Tory Claim? There are always Tory claims and Labour claims during an Election. Very few are accurate. Sometimes they seem to be pure fantasy. What about this Tory claim? What is it based on? The claim is that a future Labour government would raise taxes on every working family buy £3,068. That is a remarkably specific amount, so it must be true, mustn’t it? Not according to Labour, they dismiss it as being just made up, plucked out of the sky. To begin with the claim says “every working family”. What is a working family and how many are there? According to the Office for National Statistics there are 17.4m families with at least one member working in the UK. Take out the working families in Northern Ireland, the Tory Claim says British families, and the figure becomes 17m. So 17m x £3,068 and Labour would raise £51bn. What? Really? (Have I got the decimal point in the right place?). Labour is askance at the suggestion that it would need to raise that much through taxation. They would raise the top rate of tax, we know that. Mind you The Tory claim that that tax rise will not actually increase the tax take for the Exchequer. The Tory claim is based on their belief that Labour is committed to save £30bn a year as it has signed up to the Charter for Budget Responsibility. Labour denies that. Remember that the Tories do not want to borrow at all while Labour is happy to borrow for investment. Confused yet? I will press on. The Tories claim that Labour has to raise £30bn either by tax rises or borrowing. They also claim that Ed Milliband said that he wanted a 50:50 split between tax rises and spending cuts. Milliband says that he has not committed to a 50:50 split. Even if he had and he did need to raise half of £30bn that is £15bn and not £51bn. So have the Tories just reversed the figures? Apparently not. The Institute of Fiscal Affairs has the answer to where the original figure came from. The Tory claim has been beefed up. It is their calculation of the tax rise under Labour per working family over the life of the next parliament. So, what looks like a massive tax rise is, actually, not that big. The Institute of Fiscal Affairs also says that “Cumulating numbers like this over several years is, at best, unhelpful. Ignoring the existence of non-working households doesn’t help provide sensible averages either.” Besides which, having analysed labour’s rules on taxing and spending the IFS calculates that Labour would need to borrow only £6bn, not £15bn, or £51bn. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. We can look forward many more Tory claims and Labour counter claims. All the fun of an election and there are still weeks to go! What’s not to love?
Politics – General Election 2015 – The Leaders’ Debates, Now We Know Why Cameron Was Scared
General Election 2015 – Cameron Was Right to be Scared David Cameron and Ed Milliband were interviewed this week on the same night by Paxman. On the night the studio audience said that Cameron had won. However, a strange thing has happened in the couple of days since. The viewing public has decided that Milliband won! For months the two main parties have been neck and neck, each on about 34%. The Sunday Times commissioned a poll by YouGov. It showed that the Labour party is now 4% ahead of Cameron’s Tories! There are more facets to the poll, and none of them make good reading for Cameron. While he is still ahead in the who would make the better Prime Minister stakes, Milliband is coming up. More worrying for Cameron is that when asked who is most in touch with real people, Cameron is not second behind Milliband. Cameron is third behind both Milliband and Farage! Milliband is seen as more trustworthy, genuine and in touch than Cameron. Of course, one poll does not mean that the general election 2015 is decided. At present it suggests that Labour would get 314 seats, the Tories 251, SNP 48, and the Lib Dems 16. Not an overall majority, but enough to start working with to construct a government. Anything could happen, including votes for the SNP handing the government to Cameron. Thinking about the polling. It seems that those questioned were people who actually watched the programmes. What you have to ask is what their voting patterns have been in the past. For example, if they were all Tory voters you would tend to think that they would favour Cameron and the reverse if they were all Labour voters. AS far as I can tell the sampling was balanced, more or less. What really matters is what the wider public get from the coverage. The first day after the interviews the coverage was all positive for Cameron, the following days less so. Certainly, the coverage today, Sunday, is quite dreadful for Cameron. Even the Tory supporters are getting in on the act. Writing for “The Conservative Woman” blog Beatrice Timpson is scathing about Cameron’s preformance. Read it here. Not a happy woman.
Politics – General Election 2015 – The Polls
The latest General Election polls I saw 2 polls in the papers yesterday. The Observer Con 34%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 14%, Greens 6%. YouGov Con 34%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 14%, Greens 5% So the pattern of The Conservatives and Labour being neck and neck remains. Since 2011 Labour has been ahead in the polls, but never very far ahead. What does it actually mean for the result of the general election? The traditional wisdom was that with both the main parties on 35% Labour would win a majority. The trouble is that the traditional wisdom does not hold. Labour’s vote in Scotland has collapsed, some heartland constituencies have seen a 25% swing to the SNP. The Tories are challenged by UKIP, which has picked up most of the votes that would have gone to the BNP. There are other factors to consider, even in 2012 The Telegraph was arguing that the Tories could not win a majority. One of the reason being that the Tories attract less than 20% of the ethnic minority vote. As they move out of Labour heartlands they take their votes with them diluting the traditional Tory vote. What else is going on as we move towards the general election 2015? Look at the Liberal Democrats. Their vote has collapsed so where will it go? In the past Liberal Democrats have looked to the left to ward off the Tories. Well, that did not work, all Clegg did was to rush into bed with Cameron. That does not persuade Lib Dem supporters to return to the fold, they fear that he might do it again. Those that voted Labour last time will stick with Labour. Those that voted Lib Dem last time have had their fingers burned, many will not do it again. They are also, as group, very likely to vote for soemone. They will vote Labour. Some Tories are saying that they need an 11% lead in the polls to win a majority. That is too high but they certainly need a bigger lead than Labour does to win a majority at the next general election. The truth is that unless there a significant shift we are heading for Labour being the biggest party at the next general election, but without a majority. So, a coalition. Maybe not. Cameron, wanting to hold on to power, would probably try to run a minority government if the Tories were the biggest party or could argue that they won the popula vote. Not an impossible scenario. A difficult trick as their only natural supporters would the rabid UKIP mob. Labour could try running a minority government without a formal coalition. They would look for support from the SNP and the Liberal Democrats on a case by case basis. Who said that the general election 2015 is boring?
Phil’s British Heart Foundation Donation – you know it makes sense
